I hope this will be the first in a weekly/bi-weekly expose of musings about readings that i've taken in about China and the experiences that I glean from my abundantly talented colleagues in the realm of government relations (here after referred to as GR). And a lot of this will be random rants, mixed in with what I believe to be, intelligent statements and some cogent, pithy postings. So let rant number one begin...
This week saw many articles posted about China's "recent" announcement to curtail rare earth shipments to the west as it has done with Japan since the Diaoyu Island kerfuffle. I remember reading about the growing trepidation about China's monopoly on rare earth production last year, when industry insiders picked up on china's announced 72% reduction in exports of the vital commodities. Back then nobody seemed to give a shit. Now that it has hit home and worries about "strangling America's green industry in the crib" has come to roost, it's funny that American strategic planners didn't have the foresight to stockpile more of the commodity. As Evan Osnos brilliantly asks (to paraphrase), "whats scarier: that China is cutting off exports of a vital commodity, or that America's strategic thinkers didn't see this coming?"
I couldn't agree more. Though I doubt America's military really has to worry (at this point), I do fear that on the next round of arms sales to Taiwan, America's military will get a taste of what Japan's industry is getting right now. That being said, America certainly has many options to "squeeze" Beijing into relinquishing its position than Japan did. Notably, America's firm control of the sea lanes of communication (SLOCs), notably the Straits of Hormuz and the Malacca Strait, can "delay" shipments of oil to China's east coast, which is vital for China's factories. Without it, they stop humming.
Although China is looking to remedy this situation, it will take them years to stockpile and secure the overland gas and oil deposits needed to insulate them from a shock like this (or one where Iran and America tussle, and fast attack speed boats shut down the Strait of Hormuz for several days). Moreover, China's "string of pearls" and "far sea defense" strategies are bearing fruit in East Timor, Sri Lanka, Gwandar, Pakistan, and Iran. These efforts have already scared policy makers in India and America.
But alas, China's force projection capabilities are still light years behind America's and its "carrier killer" weapon, the Anti-ship ballistic missile, is still unproven (for instance, can it identify the difference between an oil tanker and a carrier? And if so, can it get through all the counter measures a carrier armada can throw at it? These questions have not been answered yet, at least in a transparent way). That being said, 2011/2012 will be the height of "election" season in Beijing, and nationalism will be in full view for all to see, lead in large part by China's military, whose support will be needed for any future leaders support. Therefore I predict, despite all the pronouncements of "better military relations" and "overcoming this resent spat about over the South China Sea", China's military leaders will believe themselves in position to "bitch slap" America's military forces, and will attempt to do so. How it works out is anybody's guess, but I certainly believe that its only a matter of "when" not "if" China's military leaders feel its time to strike out and start the long process of regaining China's national pride that was so ignominiously taken from then during the century of humiliation.
Now, some of you might say, "wow, way to go out on a limb, projecting America and China will have conflict sometime in the next two years!" Ok Ok. I see your point. That is a very vague prediction, one that can happen at anytime in the next two years, and I get to turn around and say " I told you so (with my finger pointing at all the doubters out there)." I would counter that by saying most would contend that there will be "bumps and bruises" but not a conflict which I'm talking about. Well, I guess i'll go ahead and pull a Gordon Chang and go out on a limb. Who knows, maybe it could propel me to have my own blog on Forbes one day too....
Until next time.
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