I hope this will be the first in a weekly/bi-weekly expose of musings about readings that i've taken in about China and the experiences that I glean from my abundantly talented colleagues in the realm of government relations (here after referred to as GR). And a lot of this will be random rants, mixed in with what I believe to be, intelligent statements and some cogent, pithy postings. So let rant number one begin...
This week saw many articles posted about China's "recent" announcement to curtail rare earth shipments to the west as it has done with Japan since the Diaoyu Island kerfuffle. I remember reading about the growing trepidation about China's monopoly on rare earth production last year, when industry insiders picked up on china's announced 72% reduction in exports of the vital commodities. Back then nobody seemed to give a shit. Now that it has hit home and worries about "strangling America's green industry in the crib" has come to roost, it's funny that American strategic planners didn't have the foresight to stockpile more of the commodity. As Evan Osnos brilliantly asks (to paraphrase), "whats scarier: that China is cutting off exports of a vital commodity, or that America's strategic thinkers didn't see this coming?"
I couldn't agree more. Though I doubt America's military really has to worry (at this point), I do fear that on the next round of arms sales to Taiwan, America's military will get a taste of what Japan's industry is getting right now. That being said, America certainly has many options to "squeeze" Beijing into relinquishing its position than Japan did. Notably, America's firm control of the sea lanes of communication (SLOCs), notably the Straits of Hormuz and the Malacca Strait, can "delay" shipments of oil to China's east coast, which is vital for China's factories. Without it, they stop humming.
Although China is looking to remedy this situation, it will take them years to stockpile and secure the overland gas and oil deposits needed to insulate them from a shock like this (or one where Iran and America tussle, and fast attack speed boats shut down the Strait of Hormuz for several days). Moreover, China's "string of pearls" and "far sea defense" strategies are bearing fruit in East Timor, Sri Lanka, Gwandar, Pakistan, and Iran. These efforts have already scared policy makers in India and America.
But alas, China's force projection capabilities are still light years behind America's and its "carrier killer" weapon, the Anti-ship ballistic missile, is still unproven (for instance, can it identify the difference between an oil tanker and a carrier? And if so, can it get through all the counter measures a carrier armada can throw at it? These questions have not been answered yet, at least in a transparent way). That being said, 2011/2012 will be the height of "election" season in Beijing, and nationalism will be in full view for all to see, lead in large part by China's military, whose support will be needed for any future leaders support. Therefore I predict, despite all the pronouncements of "better military relations" and "overcoming this resent spat about over the South China Sea", China's military leaders will believe themselves in position to "bitch slap" America's military forces, and will attempt to do so. How it works out is anybody's guess, but I certainly believe that its only a matter of "when" not "if" China's military leaders feel its time to strike out and start the long process of regaining China's national pride that was so ignominiously taken from then during the century of humiliation.
Now, some of you might say, "wow, way to go out on a limb, projecting America and China will have conflict sometime in the next two years!" Ok Ok. I see your point. That is a very vague prediction, one that can happen at anytime in the next two years, and I get to turn around and say " I told you so (with my finger pointing at all the doubters out there)." I would counter that by saying most would contend that there will be "bumps and bruises" but not a conflict which I'm talking about. Well, I guess i'll go ahead and pull a Gordon Chang and go out on a limb. Who knows, maybe it could propel me to have my own blog on Forbes one day too....
Until next time.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Long Delayed First Posting
This has been a long time coming. Unfortunately, I didn't bring my computer with me from home and I had to get it sent here. Let me tell you, Chinese Customs is a bitch. So now that I have my computer I will make my inaugural post.
When I first arrived in China on August 26th, I had nothing but my pre-conceived notions about the place from the readings I've done on its history, culture, political, and domestic domains. The first thing I noticed though was how big its airport was. This thing is massive. It took less time to build this then it took London to add a wing to its Heathrow airport. This thing is big. I later realized that everything in China is big. The building projects are huge!! The next thing I noticed was the massive amount of workers there were in this airport doing absolutely nothing. It seems odd, but in America there would not be people sitting around on their post doing nothing. That just doesn't happen, but it happens in China with regularity whether its people at a bank or in a shopping mall or wherever. People have to be employed. It lacks efficiency, but it is necessary for regime survival. The first impressions I got of my fellow classmates was an interesting one. People from all over the country studying many different topics. The dorms are quite rudimentary as you would think, but at the same time more modern than I assumed before arriving in China. In fact, everything is more modern here in China than I first assumed. I get better cell phone service in China than I ever would in the U.S. One of the many benefits of an authoritarian regime is that they will build a cell phone tower on someones home if it is necessary. The city is covered in smog. I got a great shot that is indicative of how bad it can be. You can't possibly imagine how many people there are in this city. It is so big. It makes Los Angeles look puny in comparison. And the public transportation system is quite impressive. A lot of buses and the subway system is quite good. The IES administrators and Ra's are very nice and are willing to help you when they can. That's about the first impression I got from week one, and I will now talk about the following weeks in more detail.
My American roommate was a little weird and introverted, but other than that I got no problems with him. He doesn't snore so that's good. The other people at IES seem really cool as well, however, I am older than them by a significant age. That is disheartening because I am not a party animal anymore. All these kids want to do it seems is party, and I am not into that anymore. If I were 21-22 I would be right there with them, but I'm not. Anyway... the first weekend was a shit show, I went with a large group to some American inspired clubs in certain areas like Wudaoko and San Li Tuan, and Hou Hi, and other places like this. The drinks are more expensive than just a regular restaurant, but its okay. I got drunk for the first time in China and didn't get sick. During the instructional meetings we were told that people have gotten really sick because of drinks being noting more than formaldehyde. I guess another thing the government doesn't care to regulate. Capitalism in China, what a trip man, it is the wild fuck en west out here. Another interesting note. Everything is so cheap!!!! I am drinking a 22oz. beer at a restaurant and eating a delicious meal for about $2 U.S. dollars. That is amazing. I am already going to miss China in terms of just that. And furthermore, my pre-conceived notions of exotic foods and weird dishes that come straight from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom were foolish. The food here is excellent, if only it takes a while to get used to. I have probably lost 15 pounds since arriving here. Anyway, things in Beijing are not what I expected them to be.
Classes began and I was surprised by how fast they went. They speak nothing but Chinese and fast. I was so lost for the first couple of weeks, and for the most part, I still am. I don't know if I truly like the program and the way that it is set up. I mean you are bombarded with so much information and given so many words and sentence structures that you would expect them to give you time to inculcate them so that you could use them later. But no, they just move right along, not giving you an opportunity to imbibe anything, meaning that the new words go in and, for the most part, the old words go out. I mean I remember some of them but not nearly all of them. But I have feel that my Chinese has improved since being here, but not nearly as much as I think it could if they were to slow the program down just a little. Another thing that troubles me a bit is the fact that they give us a sample of the test before hand, allowing us to know things going into it. Now, the test isn't the same the next day, however, but it still is a little odd that they would do that. I mean it reminds me of no child left behind back home, more on wrote memorization rather than actual knowledge, but that's just me. And the library is barely open. I mean what the fuck is the point of a library if its not going to be open. I mean seriously, I have to bitch to get that thing open and it pisses me off. Other than that though, things are progressing nicely. The political science class is the biggest waste of time ever. However, the history class is quite entertaining and knowledge intensive and it is made all the more better because the teacher is incredibly enthusiastic and entertaining and bright that he relays the information in a way that it is retained so well by all the students. The government teacher, on the other hand, is incredibly somniferous and I should have taken another class like business in china or economics or something.
IES took a two week trip. Some students went to Tibet to climb a mountain at about 15,000 feet. Others went on the Silk Road trip up north in Xinkjiang and Hunan and other places like that. I went down to Yunnan near the Burmese and Vietnamese boarders. It was incredible. We visited places like Kunming, Dali, Xishuanbana, and other more remote places like a rural village called Ai Ni. That was an experience only because it is the most rural place I have ever seen, making backwater America look like the first world. I mean this place just got a road connecting to the major city in the region in May. It was unreal and they were such great hosts. The whole trip was a great experience. I roomed with another kid named Andrew, who also happens to be a Type 1 Diabetic as well, with the pump. That was a trip and it was good to because we kept our Diabetes in check for the most part. Furthermore, he is probably the most intelligent person I have ever known. He imbibes information like a computer, it is unreal. We had some great discussions about politics, economics, history, and other subjects. We had a good time. On the trip we learned so much about the local economies and the region in general. We took an 80 mile bike ride around a lake called Er Hi which was the hardest thing I have had to took physically since two-a-days in football. But it was very rewarding, the scenery was incredibly beautiful. However, seeing most of Yunnan and talking with Andrew and our RA of the trip Steve, who is also a really great guy and a person who I think I will have a great connection with after I leave China, outside of Beijing, Shanghai, and the other coastal cities, there is not much economic development going on. It seems like a facade when you read about China's economic development. I mean the rural areas are some of the most backward places in the world. Seeing these places and even going 45 minutes north of Beijing to see the underdeveloped rural areas makes me believe that the notion that China is going to overtake the United States in the future seem a little premature. But them again, with the current financial crisis, historians might mark this time as the beginning of the end of the western ruled order of the last 200 years. Who knows, but the trip gave me a depth of perspective that I don't think I could have gotten in Beijing. Anyway.... we learned about the coffee business in Yunnan, as well as the rubber, and tea plantations which are integral to the regions economy. We also learned about the government attempts to combat the flourishing drug trade in the region. All this was helpful in gleaning the sheer complexity of China itself. Additionally, in Kunming there are about 7-9 million people living there. That would be the third largest city in America and nobody back in the states has even heard about it. That is another thing I learned while on this trip. The sheer size of China and the massive amount of people that are in it. I mean don't get me wrong, I knew that China had a lot of people before going, but you don't fully realize the sheer weight and depth and breadth of such a thing until you actually go there and experience it first hand. My god, I was in a city that would be the third largest in the states and nobody in America, with the exception of an elite few, have heard of it or even knows where it is. That is unreal to me and it is something that I will never forget. While on the trip I took away many gorgeous pictures of temples and scenery that are hundreds and thousands of years old that will be permanently ingrained in my psyche, unfortunately I can't upload them into my computer because I don't have the connecting device to do so, so I will wait till I go back home. Oh, I also got my first experience of an overnight train, that was a trip. It was fun, but uncomfortable.
Since we got back from the trip classes have intensified. We finally got our Chinese roommates which is cool. My is pretty cool, but the personal haptics is a bit of a problem. He is quite bright though, which is good and his presence is helping my Chinese substantially. This upcoming weekend we leave for another short trip, this time only a long weekend excursion. I am going to Qingdao, and I am super stocked because I heard it is a great city. The famous beer is made there and it was also home to the Olympic sailing events. This past weekend I went to the great wall for the first time, and not a tourist location either, I mean we hiked our asses off to get to this place and it was well worth it. The scenery was incredible and the air was a good reprieve from the Beijing smog and congestion. It was quite and it gives you and appreciation about just how hard it must have been to build such a massive wall across so much land. Well worth it. Okay, I will check back in next week when I return from Qingdao. Until next time.
-Andrew
When I first arrived in China on August 26th, I had nothing but my pre-conceived notions about the place from the readings I've done on its history, culture, political, and domestic domains. The first thing I noticed though was how big its airport was. This thing is massive. It took less time to build this then it took London to add a wing to its Heathrow airport. This thing is big. I later realized that everything in China is big. The building projects are huge!! The next thing I noticed was the massive amount of workers there were in this airport doing absolutely nothing. It seems odd, but in America there would not be people sitting around on their post doing nothing. That just doesn't happen, but it happens in China with regularity whether its people at a bank or in a shopping mall or wherever. People have to be employed. It lacks efficiency, but it is necessary for regime survival. The first impressions I got of my fellow classmates was an interesting one. People from all over the country studying many different topics. The dorms are quite rudimentary as you would think, but at the same time more modern than I assumed before arriving in China. In fact, everything is more modern here in China than I first assumed. I get better cell phone service in China than I ever would in the U.S. One of the many benefits of an authoritarian regime is that they will build a cell phone tower on someones home if it is necessary. The city is covered in smog. I got a great shot that is indicative of how bad it can be. You can't possibly imagine how many people there are in this city. It is so big. It makes Los Angeles look puny in comparison. And the public transportation system is quite impressive. A lot of buses and the subway system is quite good. The IES administrators and Ra's are very nice and are willing to help you when they can. That's about the first impression I got from week one, and I will now talk about the following weeks in more detail.
My American roommate was a little weird and introverted, but other than that I got no problems with him. He doesn't snore so that's good. The other people at IES seem really cool as well, however, I am older than them by a significant age. That is disheartening because I am not a party animal anymore. All these kids want to do it seems is party, and I am not into that anymore. If I were 21-22 I would be right there with them, but I'm not. Anyway... the first weekend was a shit show, I went with a large group to some American inspired clubs in certain areas like Wudaoko and San Li Tuan, and Hou Hi, and other places like this. The drinks are more expensive than just a regular restaurant, but its okay. I got drunk for the first time in China and didn't get sick. During the instructional meetings we were told that people have gotten really sick because of drinks being noting more than formaldehyde. I guess another thing the government doesn't care to regulate. Capitalism in China, what a trip man, it is the wild fuck en west out here. Another interesting note. Everything is so cheap!!!! I am drinking a 22oz. beer at a restaurant and eating a delicious meal for about $2 U.S. dollars. That is amazing. I am already going to miss China in terms of just that. And furthermore, my pre-conceived notions of exotic foods and weird dishes that come straight from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom were foolish. The food here is excellent, if only it takes a while to get used to. I have probably lost 15 pounds since arriving here. Anyway, things in Beijing are not what I expected them to be.
Classes began and I was surprised by how fast they went. They speak nothing but Chinese and fast. I was so lost for the first couple of weeks, and for the most part, I still am. I don't know if I truly like the program and the way that it is set up. I mean you are bombarded with so much information and given so many words and sentence structures that you would expect them to give you time to inculcate them so that you could use them later. But no, they just move right along, not giving you an opportunity to imbibe anything, meaning that the new words go in and, for the most part, the old words go out. I mean I remember some of them but not nearly all of them. But I have feel that my Chinese has improved since being here, but not nearly as much as I think it could if they were to slow the program down just a little. Another thing that troubles me a bit is the fact that they give us a sample of the test before hand, allowing us to know things going into it. Now, the test isn't the same the next day, however, but it still is a little odd that they would do that. I mean it reminds me of no child left behind back home, more on wrote memorization rather than actual knowledge, but that's just me. And the library is barely open. I mean what the fuck is the point of a library if its not going to be open. I mean seriously, I have to bitch to get that thing open and it pisses me off. Other than that though, things are progressing nicely. The political science class is the biggest waste of time ever. However, the history class is quite entertaining and knowledge intensive and it is made all the more better because the teacher is incredibly enthusiastic and entertaining and bright that he relays the information in a way that it is retained so well by all the students. The government teacher, on the other hand, is incredibly somniferous and I should have taken another class like business in china or economics or something.
IES took a two week trip. Some students went to Tibet to climb a mountain at about 15,000 feet. Others went on the Silk Road trip up north in Xinkjiang and Hunan and other places like that. I went down to Yunnan near the Burmese and Vietnamese boarders. It was incredible. We visited places like Kunming, Dali, Xishuanbana, and other more remote places like a rural village called Ai Ni. That was an experience only because it is the most rural place I have ever seen, making backwater America look like the first world. I mean this place just got a road connecting to the major city in the region in May. It was unreal and they were such great hosts. The whole trip was a great experience. I roomed with another kid named Andrew, who also happens to be a Type 1 Diabetic as well, with the pump. That was a trip and it was good to because we kept our Diabetes in check for the most part. Furthermore, he is probably the most intelligent person I have ever known. He imbibes information like a computer, it is unreal. We had some great discussions about politics, economics, history, and other subjects. We had a good time. On the trip we learned so much about the local economies and the region in general. We took an 80 mile bike ride around a lake called Er Hi which was the hardest thing I have had to took physically since two-a-days in football. But it was very rewarding, the scenery was incredibly beautiful. However, seeing most of Yunnan and talking with Andrew and our RA of the trip Steve, who is also a really great guy and a person who I think I will have a great connection with after I leave China, outside of Beijing, Shanghai, and the other coastal cities, there is not much economic development going on. It seems like a facade when you read about China's economic development. I mean the rural areas are some of the most backward places in the world. Seeing these places and even going 45 minutes north of Beijing to see the underdeveloped rural areas makes me believe that the notion that China is going to overtake the United States in the future seem a little premature. But them again, with the current financial crisis, historians might mark this time as the beginning of the end of the western ruled order of the last 200 years. Who knows, but the trip gave me a depth of perspective that I don't think I could have gotten in Beijing. Anyway.... we learned about the coffee business in Yunnan, as well as the rubber, and tea plantations which are integral to the regions economy. We also learned about the government attempts to combat the flourishing drug trade in the region. All this was helpful in gleaning the sheer complexity of China itself. Additionally, in Kunming there are about 7-9 million people living there. That would be the third largest city in America and nobody back in the states has even heard about it. That is another thing I learned while on this trip. The sheer size of China and the massive amount of people that are in it. I mean don't get me wrong, I knew that China had a lot of people before going, but you don't fully realize the sheer weight and depth and breadth of such a thing until you actually go there and experience it first hand. My god, I was in a city that would be the third largest in the states and nobody in America, with the exception of an elite few, have heard of it or even knows where it is. That is unreal to me and it is something that I will never forget. While on the trip I took away many gorgeous pictures of temples and scenery that are hundreds and thousands of years old that will be permanently ingrained in my psyche, unfortunately I can't upload them into my computer because I don't have the connecting device to do so, so I will wait till I go back home. Oh, I also got my first experience of an overnight train, that was a trip. It was fun, but uncomfortable.
Since we got back from the trip classes have intensified. We finally got our Chinese roommates which is cool. My is pretty cool, but the personal haptics is a bit of a problem. He is quite bright though, which is good and his presence is helping my Chinese substantially. This upcoming weekend we leave for another short trip, this time only a long weekend excursion. I am going to Qingdao, and I am super stocked because I heard it is a great city. The famous beer is made there and it was also home to the Olympic sailing events. This past weekend I went to the great wall for the first time, and not a tourist location either, I mean we hiked our asses off to get to this place and it was well worth it. The scenery was incredible and the air was a good reprieve from the Beijing smog and congestion. It was quite and it gives you and appreciation about just how hard it must have been to build such a massive wall across so much land. Well worth it. Okay, I will check back in next week when I return from Qingdao. Until next time.
-Andrew
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